A currency system is the first and foremost application where blockchain was applied. I think that gold is nothing special its a shiny rock. January 3, 2018, 7:59 am. In CPI inflation adjusted terms, 1999 index investors have only very recently earned back their losses. They seem less wise and more credentialed. Even in a police state like China their actions have failed! El Penguin It often seems like there is a Bitcoin mafia who get upset if someone says something bad about Bitcoin. Mustachianism the mental training that gets you to very early financial freedom requires you to evaluate inefficiencies in our culture and call bullshit upon them. Ryan Thomas A blockchain without an inbuilt cryptocurrency is yet to prove itself as viable and secure. This has resulted in the Bitcoin blockchain ledger being nearly immutable. Personally, I disagree that speculating is inherently bad. Sure the BTC reward goes down, but the USD/BTC price keeps rising offsetting the lower reward for the time being. Will it help me achieve my financial dreams quicker? No one is suggesting that investing in mining is a good idea. It doesnt mean they are in bubbles at any price. It seems like youre advocating for scenario #2. Do you fault coffee or corn or wheat for being non-productive, or do you appreciate them as goods, at an appropriate price? Even a significant percentage would be really stupid. Rick Gardner As a result, the benefits of human progress are not reflected in our moneys purchasing power. This article seems ranty/irrational. Important: Having a guideline as to when you have enough money to consider yourself financially independent (FI). About half a trillion dollars worth of gnashing and rending. Glad to see some sense being written to the red necks who seem to inhabit this blog! I dont think Bitcoin will be very snuggly. A good analogy is a life raft on the ocean vs an aircraft carrier. To call gold a non-productive asset misses the point entirely. I agree Jay. January 3, 2018, 1:43 pm, Apparently, Amazon pays people in other countries with Amazon gift cards. The growing demand for more electricity is the most serious issue with Bitcoin, IMO. This is Part 1 of 2. Anyway, what would he dump it for? I promise you, the US Government is knees deep in the blockchain and is monitoring everything. The price went on a historic and seemingly unstoppable run all the way to $150 per barrel in 2008. If I understand correctly, the rate of return is VERY low because of the high hash difficulty that Bitcoin has now reached. 2) Volatility the market cap of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is small compared to that of fiat currencies. However, cryptocurrency is what incentivizes the network to secure a blockchain, so theyre two sides of the same coin. This is not correct. A boy named Sue Blockchain (you are the first person I read who thinks the jury is still out on blockchain (I agree)) takes more and more energy as it grows. Anyway, to your other point, the main beneficiaries of this bubble are the exchanges. Invest in anything wisely and safely. Because hydro acts as a massive built-in storage in both the short term (ms, seconds) and long term ( hours, days, January 2, 2018, 5:52 pm. I agree with you. Great post, I have been content to sit on the sidelines and watch the show. Assuming you can know the exact price of a commodity on a given day is speculative, yes. MMM deservedly makes a fortune off this website, and stirring the Bitcoin pot will surely drive more traffic to keep blog profits rolling in. And of course, the purpose of this whole aside is that I want to establish credibility with you, so you will give this article some consideration. Hopefully someone else will go through this in 2023 and fill us in on the value then. I enjoy and appreciate your blog and the core messages you send the world, and thanks for raising this fascinating subject. Here is one interesting chart among many that shows exactly that: Even things that can be good investments can be in a bubble. But its not some spectacular Instant Trillionaire piece of magic. But observing long term norms of valuation and noticing when they are out of whack is not called being speculative. The sooner we debunk the myth and come to our senses, the richer our world will be. Do you really think you own your Fiat paper? I dont buy that much stuff. The timestamp on these comments is pretty helpful to see who was right! http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/06/01/andreas-antonopoulos-explains-blockchain-nothing-without-bitcoin/, Mr. Frugal Toque Having interest rates all the way down to near 0% without a good exit plan should give you some pause how much you want to trust these people. January 2, 2018, 5:44 pm. remittances, credit lending for undocumented people. Shiller really just rediscovered it. This inefficient design is now wasting more electricity than many entire countries. I even read about these things for fun, with Simon Singhs The Code Book and the Neil Stephenson novel Cryptonomicon being particularly fun shortcuts to pick up some of the workings and the context of cryptography. And of course, the purpose of this whole aside is that I want to establish credibility with you, so you will give this article some consideration. If you want a proper Blockchain, then it has to be decentralised and a Public ledger where multiple computers across the globe validate and keep it secure, and we already have Bitcoin for that which already has the necessary network effect, the developer ecosystem and helluva lot of miners. It can be entertaining, though, to sit there and watch people who just happen to have $7k in small bills on them feed it into the machine at 2 am. Hurry! I feel anything worth putting money in should, in broad over-simplified terms at least, be comprehensible even to a simpleton like me. I linked to Aswath Damodarans video on my Bitcoin post also. I dont know if stock prices will go down. 3. Ryan Thomas Holy Shit! is the only reasonable reaction. What is currently happening in Venezuela is not an isolated incident, and its incredibily naive to think that it cant happen here. Just the same with crypto-currencies today. It then proceeded to burst in spectacular fashion just ahead of the financial crisis, plunging all the way back to $30 before rebounding. Just like gold, tulip bulbs, Beanie Babies, 1999 dotcoms without any hope of a product plan, pre-construction pricing Toronto condominiums you have no intent to occupy or rent out, and rare baseball cards are not investments. Mr Money Mustache 26-02-2023 Hobbyen. Consensus over its value. A prescient article, but unfortunately, those of us that have investigated Bitcoin and come to the same conclusions(no interest in speculation, possibly completely value-less) must continue to put up with the Bitcoin bulls, and as seen in this comment section, they are extremely bullish. Because it is backed by an entity that will ensure its value is honored and, to at least a small degree, those that are responsible for it are also accountable to the citizens of the US. (You couldnt type to me on a computer or launch a satellite into space without it.). Value is subjective; not all speculation is irresponsible; gold and other odd stores of value have novelty effects. And to your last point Lightning network will be cheaper? So, Bitcoin is a protocol invented to solve a money problem that simply does not exist in the rich countries, which is where most of the money is. as well as all legal forms of private sales (ie. Mr. Money Mustache shares his opinion about Bitcoin. An Interview with Matt Cutts: Can the Government grow a Money Mustache? Market timing is a fools errand anyway. Videos about Personal Finance, Early Retirement, and Other Stuff. Read through TomTXs posts below Michael and you will get to know who started. 7 Replies 594 Views February 10, 2023, 11:49:28 AM by index: Bonds funds vs stable value funds. Iota and RaiBlocks use something different than the blockchain to make each user a miner by requiring each transaction to verify other transactions which prevents transaction fees. Hearing about every move Bitcoin makes is already more annoying than hearing about the DJIA ever referred to(when we have the S&P500). Or stay in touch with them because they might become millionaires? January 2, 2018, 9:13 pm. I also invested in a bitcoin two years ago, and paid off all my debt with it. There is some behavioral economics at play in dividend policy in that firms that issue dividends generally have a sound, stable business with secure cash flows; the market recognizes that and probably trades the stock at a slight premium, but that does not mean that investing in firms that do not issue dividends constitutes speculating. Right now if bitcoin enjoys the lead, what is there to call it stupid. destroy? An investment is something that has intrinsic value that is, it would be worth owning from a financial perspective,even if you could never sell it. For more casual sampling, have a look at this complete list of all posts since the beginning of time or download the mobile app. Just because the last while has been great, it wont always be that way. I always remember one sound arguments on investing that goes something like if they need to over explain the product and their business model, then Im not buying it.. That is where we are with Bitcoins. $100 per post is pretty motivating. (Now, as you mentioned, it is most likely just speculation driven by greed). What happens a cryptocurrency becomes the Standard World Currency, and at the same time, over half of all the mining power of said Standard World Currency is located within a single country which also happens to have a totalitarian regime at the top of it? If you read your history on this subject you would understand why I dont. I can only assume the grief the internet trolls will give you on this as they defend their virtual Bitcoin pile. There is a related problem that Bitcoin transactions are too slow and too expensive to be practical. Regulation by SECI doubt theres any way to know the innovation that has been stifled, the small companies which never existed, the middle class growing local investment missed, because theres no cheap seat at the table. Allow it time to grow to say 10 trillion, and then let us debate on stability. It would have sounded like science fiction, and even if he accepted it was possible he still wouldnt understand why anyone would want such a thing. You all and Mr. Money Mustache are the ones that are collectively insane as you watch a technology that has the potential to benefit humanity possibly more than anything in history Pass you by as you are too blind in your indoctrinated social normative lenses to ever see the big picture. Itll be like monetizing bandwidth because were effectively dealing with the internet of value and ownership. Mr. Money Mustache is a thirty-something retiree who now writes about how we can all live a frugal, yet awesome, life of leisure. Very interesting. As strong, intellengent Mustachians, we must think critically for ourselves about what is implied by trusting fiat currencies. Guys. Apparently the friend had doubled his money. Don't look at prices, look at relative prices. I agree with your points on why this is not a viable currency, and no I wont buy your nail clippings!!! As long as you can find another willing buyer before the price crashes. Then my father used the same toilet paper for his cars and his house? 8. Also appreciate fungibility. It is an innovation worthy of a Nobel that is being trashed by MMM and his horde of supporters who have no clue how the Internet of Money is going to replace everything we know about Banking and Finance! do not feed into this crap that there is no banking infrastructure. Do you practice illegal tax evasion as your primary wealth strategy? You could grow more bulbs indefinitely. Own as much Bitcoin as matches your understanding of Bitcoin. You are correct to note that Since the late 1990s when Shiller started promoting the CAPE ratio stocks have regularly been in bubble territory. Note that he didnt say the underlying technology (blockchain) is stupid. Besides, your use of the terms fiat currencies and toilet paper tell us where you really stand. Also, not all crypto currencies use PoW to mine / verify transactions. Bitcoin finally surpassed $40K and topped at $41,940 on Jan 8. obsolete. Its inevitable as brick and mortar banks and finance will become extinct! Blockchain may be the future, but that doesnt mean any of the current currencies will be worth anything. Bitcoin (aka CancerPills) has become an investment bubble, with the complementary forces of Human herd behavior, greed, fear of missing out, and a lack of understanding of past financial bubbles amplifying it. Wow, you really have no idea how hydroelectric power works. January 3, 2018, 4:34 am, Dont plan on investing in cryptocurrency. Everything is awesome, we cannot fail, it is great! For me, its just like watching a show that I dont know the ending of yet. Again, only in nominal terms. Its not that I enjoy seeing people suffer, but who am to talk them out of it? All I had to do was sell the integrity of my blog for $100 non-bitcoin bucks (via PayPal of course.) I agree this is a subpar post on MMM, and I am sad to see that he doesnt yet get it when it comes to decentralized currency networks. 1) Adoption curve and network effect, 2) people buying & holding (hodling), 3) people using it to buy stuff or services. Being knowledgeable about finance does not mean being knowledgeable about economics. That is wrong. If you think you are hardcore enough to handle Maximum Mustache, feel free to start at the first article and read your way up to the present using the links at the bottom of each article. Also withdrawing profits consistently so that if a crash comes you are ahead of the game and only playing with the markets money by withdrawing at minimum what you already invested. 1 Replies 290 Views February 10, 2023, 05:55:08 AM . These units run circles around the baddest gaming PC with 6 graphics cards in terms of performance, but they are noisy and not a good room heater for anyone with Ok hearing. If youre in cryptos early, that difference skyrockets in favor of cryptos. Youre smiling because your preferred form of gambling resulted in a win congrats! They cant use these gift cards. A billion dollar gaming industry creating games worth watching. College, Medical, Cars, houses, Child Care, Stocks, Bitcoin, hell even dining out is all overinflated. !, What is money? That said, I guess ridiculous speculation has been around for ages this is just the latest flavor. Its like saying they are investing in lottery tickets. Bond prices werent historically low in those other cases and Shiller PE has been high for basically ever since the guy invented it. Read your history, it happens occasionally even in the great USA (a few times actually). People fall in love with works of art. The security of the Bitcoin blockchain. My heart would break if I said goodbye to $200k. Until the price of bitcoin (any of the crypto currencies) achieves some semblance of stability, they will fail to be good mediums of exchange. On the other hand, paying a ridiculously high speculative price based only on what others *might* be willing to pay in the futurebased on little historical or reasonable evidencecertainly is insane. If you were setting up your portfolio from scratch today, would you buy $500K of GBTC with it? Absolutely, so Ill proceed with it. There is some very interesting technology being developed in the cryptocurrency space right now, so be careful about throwing out the baby with the bath water. On the popular Coinbase it will cost you about 4% just to exchange USD for BTC. January 5, 2018, 7:21 pm, *cough* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania. The sensible-sounding ones will say, Sure the G20 nations all have stable financial systems, but Bitcoin is a lifesaver in places like Venezuela where the government can vaporize your wealth when you sleep., The harder-core pundits say Even the US Federal Reserve is a bunch a CROOKS, stealing your money via INFLATION, and that nasty Fiat Currency they issue is nothing but TOILET PAPER!!. The internet became an amazing avenue for wealth. In a sense one could swap bitcoin to USD and the article still stands. to convince them myself. January 3, 2018, 12:26 pm. Please, Alex Anton is not shouting. I dont feel like making a well-constructed arguments because Im tired and this may make me look like a fool but frankly, I dont care. Your turn to supply real numbers. Cut him some slack especially as he makes SUCH GOOD POINTS! The other argument for Bitcoins value is that there will only ever be 21 million of them, and they will eventually replace all other world currencies, or at least become the new gold, so the fundamental value is either the entire worlds GDP or at least the total value of all gold, divided by 21 million. It is also an opportunity to get the 2 Billion unbanked people on the planet to also enjoy a level playing field through this new Internet of Money. Start (or have) a company that produces and sells something people actually buy. Here's my direct negative experience with Pete, Mr. Money Mustache that may give insight into the MMM divorce. But thats just the software side (Blockchain). Why Bitcoin and not another coin? Tim Beck Im not saying Bitcoin is the saviour of USD imperialism. After all, you could make the same argument about Mr. Money Mustachesfingernail clippings: they may have no intrinsic value, but at least they are in limited supplyso lets use them as the new world currency! Perhaps the reason this was not mentioned, is that you do not value the decentralized aspect of blockchain technology and are happy with a trusted third party (government) setup. Started by JenniferW. If it works out, its a windfall. Overall, it is just as likely to go up as it is down, especially in the near term, and is best to avoid all together unless you just love gambling and dont care about losing money. Do I trust the people at the federal reserve that helped cause the 2008 crash and didnt call it beforehand? (Update from late 2018 Mike ended up being wayyyy wrong.). And even if that was true, there are still many forms of private sales going on everyday where people dont want a traceable form of payment / exchange. You disagree. We end up in Utopia? January 3, 2018, 7:36 am. January 3, 2018, 4:42 pm. In order for bitcoin to be a real currency, Adeney claims, it must be three things: easy and frictionless for trading between people, widely accepted as a legal tender for all debts (both public. Good thing I dont invest in it! Update, three years later: Since I wrote this, the imaginary price of Bitcoin has continued to be all over the map it initially dropped over 70%, then it went back up many hundreds of percent, over and over. It has a track record though ill give you that. You are right in one sense, this is one use you could put your fiat paper money to where Bitcoin cannot help! Still no fundamentals. What is the US Dollar pegged to? But if you have some play money, it doesnt hurt to speculate if that is what you enjoy doing and dont mind losing everything you put in. It really starts to stink if it is left unattended to. And just as a warning, I am always going to tell you that price speculation is a bad way to spend your life. Dan, I am not angry when someone says they dont want to invest in it. And a currency thats not used for transactions isnt a real currency. For this article, I have set the bar much lower to show you the religious conviction that crypto speculators have. The Money Mustache Community Learning, Sharing, and Teaching Investor Alley Our Crypto Investment strategy (slow and steady investing for the win) . Its all the same stuff that people say about Gold, which is also a totally irrational waste of human investment energy. The pure votality and surge should be a warning for the average investor. Big ERN just recommended me to your blog and now I see that you beat me to the joke I just made. Max Your Freedom That is the right way to think about these things. His main investing motivation because he feels like hes late to the game and wants the earnings he could have had. I doubt you really believe this is going to overthrow all of our current financial system. As for USD working has many reasons, required to participate in the largest economy in the world, the military power behind said economy, etc. I keep hearing everyone speculating on whether or not they should invest in Bitcoin, while at the same time googling what cryptocurrency and block chain is. Making government efficient and effective for the people is noble as well. Even if you win some money through dumb luck, you have lost some time and life energy, which means you have lost. Youve made a great profit, and you can play with that $28k. Check out RaiBlocks and other DAG-based coins. (namely, cultural values and living conditions which have been shown through study to increase our subjective wellbeing scores, or Science if you want a shorthand for it). Its a win-win situation. Do not let your own brain trick you for easy solutions! Except of course, for all the others. Remember 2008? Shit. Nixon just took away the last vestiges of the gold standard. Its hard to quantify the lost energy and human potential, but the cost is real. As soon as I read you were selling a bag of your nail clippings for $100, I thought to myself that is a great deal! Whatever they are willing to pay to enjoy owning these things themselves is their business, and may make for a fairly rational purchase. Let me know when you find a buyer for your $70k fingernail clippings. One of the 3 points MMM stated it needs. Staying on the sidelines unless you have some special knowledge of when exactly the the bubble will pop. Nope I am not a skeptic, and also since I was there then (with pre-internet BBS). So I did learn a bit about locking and unlocking information, hacking, and ensuring that independent brains (whether they are two adjacent CPUs on a circuit board or two companies negotiating across the Pacific) can trust each other and coordinate their actions in lockstep. Good points. So I also read a lot about investment bubbles and fundamentals and how to tell those apart. Jay Holden Shit. Bitmains S9 efficiency is at ~0.1 J/GHs. Your entire new medium of exchange is part of the black market. The main reason is Kenya has a mobile money system which allows you to use phone credit to pay for stuff or even just your own money. That is why I also invest in government bonds. 1. Personally i feel that the USD is rapidly approaching hyperinflation. I'm a software engineer and my career was in cryptography and network security. Probably the same will happen again. I would say, Probably the same would not happen again. The idea of have a decentralized monetary system outside of government and banking control is great in my mind. But, these days you shouldnt use resistance heaters except for the lightest heating loads, because they are obsolete. Not a repeatable strategy though, Im sure. Because theyve talked about doing away with the penny for YEARS now and yet, I still have pennies in my pocket. True. Mr. Money Mustache: Bitcoin isn't a currency it's like buying Beanie Babies The popular blogger, who retired debt-free at 30, says bitcoin's value is "imaginary." The popular blogger, who. Do you seriously think that corruption is not a big deal in first-world countries? I was having coffee with a friend just 2 weeks ago and he mentioned a friend of his who was investing in Bitcoin and asked what I thought. You are correct about your overall analysis: Bitcoin is indeed silly as a store of value from current prices because the number of insanely secure blockchains can always be increased by 1. They always do. I believe the current Cryptocurrency investment mania is a huge waste of human energy, and our rate of waste has been growing exponentially. Your fiat paper would be worthless in 10 years and you will be washing your ass with it! Let them hold on to their fiat currency if they like to. But, just because you believe your paper fiat is going to survive does not mean you put an article with a header calling it stupid! Just because the recent past has been good times doesnt mean it will stay that way. It certainly is for day traders in short term. We can effectively automate trust. Thats fairly over the top. It remains to be seen. Dr-In-Debt Ill stick with the stock market thank you very much. Full anonymity and government evasion will not be one of its features. Seeing people suffer, but who am to talk them out of it cars, houses, Child,. Federal reserve that helped cause the 2008 crash and didnt call it stupid a system. College, Medical, cars, houses, Child Care, stocks, Bitcoin, IMO engineer! The bar much lower to show you the religious conviction that crypto speculators have a satellite into space it. 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